Cognitive Bias

Was Mickey Mantle that Good? – Misremembering Legends

Last night, Major League Baseball played its 86th All Star Game. As part of the festivities, launched a campaign for fans to vote for its team's "Franchise Four," the best four all-time players on each team. Additionally, a separate ballot asked fans to vote for the greatest four living players. These elections were interesting to monitor, watching generations of old battle current generations for the greatest ever.

As discussed
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The Increasing Role of Psychology in Baseball

Sports in general have advanced with the times, but baseball especially has showcased how sports can change with technology. Beginning with the Sabermetrics Revolution, led by characters such as Bill James and Billy Bean, baseball teams started seeking a competitive edge using previously unknown statistics. WAR, Babip, and Fip became household words as these new-aged statistics identified surprising, at times counterintuitive, advantages of some players over others.
According to a recent USA Today article, as part of the new wave of baseball, teams have also given added importance to the role of psychologists on staff. Ken Ravizza, who has been involved with baseball teams since 1985, is now working with the Cubs. At the time he started, the only other mental health skills expert in the sport was Harvey Dorfman, working for Sandy Alderson's innovative Oakland A's. Now, nearly every team has at least one.
As Ravizza explains:

"People realize now that we've tapped the physical conditioning aspect. We've tapped the mechanics aspect. We're tapping the computer aspect and all the numbers. I think now they're realizing the next edge is the six inches between the ears."
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Fan Psychology

Why We Care About Sports (Part II) – An Escape

Previously, we resumed our discussion about why people watch sports and explained its simple entertainment value. This week we look at another factor listed as one among many in the psychology literature, yet seems quite common among well-known writers.

Sports on Earth writer and Deadspin founder Will Leitch has summarized sports' value in various contexts. For example, in explaining the mistake Lebron James made the night of his big Decision, Leitch provided an...
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Does “Close” Count in Sports?

"Close only counts in horseshoes and grenade throwing," the saying goes. I heard this saying early and often in my life, generally after trying to seek consolation in barely losing at anything to my older brother.
Sports fans seem to accept this dictum, or as Kanye West put it, "moral victories is for minor league coaches."
As the NBA and NHL playoffs roll on, close games are plentiful. NBA playoff games on three consecutive days were decided by buzzer-beaters. The losers looked devastated. The fans were crushed. The negative effect must have lasted into the next game, right?
Of those three teams to lose by a buzzer beater, two won their next game.
Did coming so close help motivate the losing players in future games?
The New York Rangers have played 11 playoff games this year and all have been decided by exactly one goal. Did their tough losses motivate them to comeback from down 3-1 against Washington to tie the series, or did their recent one-goal wins traumatize their opponent?
Does close count in sports?
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Are Yankee Fans Happier than Met Fans?

As the Mets and Yankees prepare to do regular season battle for the 19th straight year, reflecting on the two teams' histories would lead to an obvious conclusion about which team's fanbase is happier.
After all, the Yankees have won 27 World Series championships, featured dozens of hall of famers, and just in the last 20 years, won 5 championships while appearing in the playoffs virtually every season. Meanwhile, over in Flushing, the Mets have won a mere 2 championships in over 50 years of existence, the most recent one almost 30 years ago. Only one man, Tom Seaver, has a plaque in Cooperstown with a Mets hat, and engulfed in financial woes, the team has not had a winning record since 2008. So obviously Yankees fans are happier, right?
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Why Opening Day Should Be a Holiday

Last year, led by the efforts of Budweiser and Ozzie Smith, over 100,000 people signed a petition sent to the White House asking to recognize baseball's Opening Day as a national holiday. The petition was respectfully declined--it cites multiple presidents who have thrown out opening pitches over the span of a century--with the explanation that holidays are for Congress to determine.
In the spirit of Passover, one must wonder, why is this sport's Opening Day different from all other Opening Days (or nights)?
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4 Psychological Secrets of Kentucky’s Success

This weekend, the Kentucky Wildcats will attempt to win two more games and become the first men's college basketball team to finish a season undefeated since Indiana in 1976, and the first to win 40 games. The Wildcats are stocked with talent, assisted in part by coach John Calipari's openness to "one and done" students, i.e. players who would like to enter the NBA quickly but are required to play one season in college.

But as Calipari's historical season has continued, there is also evidence that he utilizes other fields, such as psychology, to ensure that his players have every advantage possible when competing.
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Basking in Reflected Glory (BIRG)

Why We Care About Sports (Part I) – Pleasure

A while back, we posed the question about why we watch sports, but we did not offer any solutions. The months of February and March are a good time to explore, as they traditionally represent down time in professional sports, between the Super Bowl and Opening Day, and before the hockey and basketball playoffs begin (of course, there's always March Madness).
So why do we watch sports? Well, a few reasons, but the first and most obvious is because it feels good.
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What’s Next for Retired NFL Players?

When Tom Brady took a knee to conclude Super Bowl 49, the 2014 season officially came to an end. With it, hundreds of careers ended as well. The average NFL career is a mere 3.5 years. As many players prepare (or are forced) to begin their retirements, their lives quickly become less glamorous than they were used to from their playing days.
Sports Illustrated reported in 2009 that 78% of NFL players are broke within 2-5 years of retiring. Their marriages tend to dissipate quickly. Most are in
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Why We Believe in Sports Superstitions

Matt Harvey must hate me. How else can I explain that only twice in his major league career has he given up five runs: at his two starts I attended. Put in mathematical terms, his ERA (earned run average) in the starts I attended sits at 8.18 while his ERA in starts I did not attend is a slightly more impressive 2.10. I cannot assume he sees me in the crowd (pretty far up) and decides not to try; rather, some force that I bring to the stadium must create a negative aura leading to his inferior performances.

Fans Believe in Superstitions...

Fan superstitions, whether in thought (like my belief about Matt Harvey) or behavior, are quite common. Bud Light recently released an ad campaign with the tag line "It's only weird if it doesn't work," humorously portraying the varieties of superstitions in which fans engage, with the implicit belief that they are helping their team win.  Though not every fan experiences the most extreme rituals, nearly every fan seems to have his special jersey, drink, or spot on the couch which boosts his team's chances of winning. Others, like myself, know that either attending, or in my case avoiding, the home team's stadium gives that team the best chance to win.

But why do we, otherwise rational, human beings have such paranormal beliefs about a bunch of adult men playing with a ball many miles away from our local bar? Even if we know intellectually that our behaviors cannot help, we seem unable to avoid them, perhaps just in case they help in some way.

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